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Family Money: Emerging
markets emerging again?
By Leslie
Wright
I am frequently asked about investments in Thailand,
and specifically, what stocks to pick on the Stock Exchange of Thailand
(SET). For the past four years my advice generally has been:
“Don’t”.
Over the past 18 months, developed world stock markets
have performed poorly, and the technology & telecomms sector has fared
particularly badly.
As investors scramble around for better profits,
looking at hedge funds for example, is it time to look more closely at
emerging markets again? After all, it’s four years since the last big
emerging markets crash in 1997 when lax South-East Asian banks’ lending
procedures and hungry currency speculators, starting with Thailand’s
baht, tore those economies to shreds.
A number of fund managers and analysts have begun
making noises about low-hanging cherries just waiting to be picked again
south of the equator and east of Cologne.
Around 5% of the world’s total stock market
capitalisation is in the emerging markets, so many portfolio advisors say
that 5% of a portfolio should similarly be made up of emerging market
assets.
But there is evidence that the emerging markets are, in
fact, relatively poor investments.
Judged solely on past performance, emerging markets
funds themselves have under performed the developed markets in the last 10
years. Although in some years some developing countries have produced good
results - Turkey in 1999, China in 2000, to cite just two examples - these
have been at the expense of big swings. They are volatile, risky
investments.
Big swings with poor returns
Looking at equity funds, $1,000 invested in an average
emerging market equity fund on 1 January 2000 is now worth just $768.
Looking further back, in the three years to January
2001, the average emerging market fund turned $1,000 into a mere $1,072,
according to fund monitor Standard & Poors. An initial fee of 5%, the
average for emerging market funds, and an inherent annual management fee
of around 1.5% - again the norm for emerging market funds - would cancel
out that $72 straightaway. Not much joy there then.
What about further back? The Morgan Stanley Capital
Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index, one of the main benchmarks used to
judge the performance of emerging markets stocks and shares, shows that
since 1988, emerging markets haven’t actually done that badly in
relative terms.
Since 1988, the UK’s FTSE All Share Index would have
turned $1,000 into $2,500. During the same period, the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index rose by just over 400%. That means $1,000 would now be worth
just over $4,000. Not bad, until you compare it to the US’s main stock
index, the S&P 500. That rose by 456%, turning $1,000 into $4,560.
The Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, one of the most
widely regarded and best performing in the industry, turned $1,000 into
$3,828 over a similar 10-year period. But one of the leading global growth
investment funds, which is far more diverse in its investments and is
mainly invested into the developed world, grew 12-fold in the same period.
The developed world, then, has considerably
out-performed the developing world in terms of investment returns.
On top of this, emerging markets are unquestionably
riskier. Traditionally, risk is acceptable if there are higher returns
attached.
One London risk analyst has calculated that a standard
emerging markets fund will rise or fall on average by 20% every 20 months.
In contrast, a developed world fund will move by 10~15%. With this sort of
Beta, the returns do not justify the risks.
But a major reason why an exposure to the emerging
markets has always been recommended by portfolio strategists is so that
investors can diversify their portfolios.
If 95% of your assets have lost 3% of their value in
one year, while 5% has soared, that 5% will do much to offset overall
losses.
And when investors suspect the developed world is
entering a down-turn, they will switch money into the opportunities of the
developing world, thereby lifting stock markets. It is in part a
self-fulfilling prophecy, but it can benefit a portfolio.
More efficient reporting
The problem with such negative correlation lies with
“mature” developing markets, such as Hungary.
Better corporate reporting, wiser investment strategies
and more efficient assessments from financial institutions, and a clearer
understanding of emerging markets in general, means that many emerging
markets are starting to behave like developed markets.
Consequently, many share prices and funds have already
factored in potential returns. One leading offshore investment strategist
recently commented, “Emerging markets have traditionally behaved
differently from the developed world in past years. Whether they’ll
continue to do so is another story.”
Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are cases in
point. All three countries are at varying stages of their entry into the
European Union. Some key aspects of governmental monetary and fiscal
policy are being dragged into line with Western European nations. Many of
the old-style corporate practices are giving way to global standards,
while company reporting is moving towards a quarterly basis.
Both these developments mean greater transparency in
corporate life. In turn, investors are more able to make the same kind of
investment decisions in the emerging markets as they would with their own
companies.
Looking at the future
While this makes for better share pricing, and bargains
harder to find, the risk involved is reduced. Less risk and the potential
for strong market growth are a powerful argument for emerging markets - an
argument that causes many investors to look at the future rather than
focus on the past.
Look at the underperformance, for example. The past
10-year period includes one huge collapse, starting in South East Asia and
spreading to the rest of the developing world.
Bearing in mind the usual caveat that “all
investments can go down as well as up”, are the last 10 years an
adequate guide to what will happen?
Leading fund strategists tend to be conservative when
it comes to emerging markets, partly due to this inability to predict what
will happen.
So, much of the worry about emerging markets as a
long-term investment comes down to whether you count from 1975 to 1995, or
1995 to 2000 - or any period in between.
It is worth noting that a stake in emerging markets in
1990 would have performed extremely well if it had been removed just four
years later, when the emerging markets’ boom of that time had peaked.
But a similar stake in 1996 would have bombed
dramatically. Back to the volatility problem again.
Real changes, real profits
Some independent financial advisers are optimistic
about emerging markets, pointing out that real changes are happening in
emerging markets. “There have been some significant political,
structural and economic reforms put in place in certain key emerging
markets since the big crash,” said one. “Valuations are looking very
attractive in some cases, if you look at the underlying assets.”
The 1997 crash prompted western lenders to be far more
cautious about whom they gave money to. It also forced the governments of
emerging markets to improve supervision, and made formerly secretive or
opaque companies improve their corporate governance.
How does this translate into economic performance,
though? One London-based analyst at a leading French bank has researched
the link between corporate governance in the emerging markets and the
share price performance of the companies. He believes there is a
sea-change occurring in how emerging markets’ companies behave.
He has discovered that the best companies in emerging
markets also produce the best returns. This comes as no great surprise.
The top 100 for transparency in reporting - they report quarterly and
according to western standards - are dramatically different in their
performance from those at the bottom.
So if you’re thinking of investing into emerging
market funds, choose those that engage in bottom-up investment decisions
where the prowess of the individual company counts, not just the
geographical location.
There’s some evidence already that judiciously
selected emerging markets funds can begin to offer good returns.
After a dismal 2000, both the Taiwanese and Korean
stock markets are up by over 20% in Sterling terms this year, along with
most of their investment funds. The Mexican sector, too, has had a
promising start to 2001.
In contrast, to the time this was written the NASDAQ
had fallen by 6% this year and since April 1st 2000 has lost some 65% of
its value.
In the end, though, the big portfolio investors such as
the pension fund managers - the ones that move markets - have a limited
appetite for risk and will probably not move wholesale into the emerging
markets until the recent volatility of the developed world is well behind
them. And that could take much of the rest of this year.
One emerging market fund manager says that once that
has happened, the emerging markets could make the early 1990s emergence
look like small beer. “The region was hugely over-hyped throughout the
1990s, then the bubble burst. But we believe that growth rates of the
emerging markets will be far higher in the next 5 to 10 years than in the
past few.”
This might lead one to conclude that the outlook is
indeed positive, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which
experienced the crash first and has suffered throughout the last 18-months
of equity market trouble.
At the moment, emerging markets are running at about a
six-to-nine-month time lag behind developed world stock market indicators,
so investors might look out for an upswing in late 2001.
But this portfolio manager is still waiting to see a
light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel.
Leslie Wright is managing director of Westminster
Portfolio Services (Thailand) Ltd., a firm of independent financial
advisors providing advice to expatriate residents of the Eastern Seaboard
on personal financial planning and international investments. If you have
any comments or queries on this article, or about other topics concerning
investment matters, contact Leslie directly by fax on (038) 232522 or
e-mail westport@loxinfo.co.th Further details and back articles can be
accessed on his firm’s website on www.westminsterthailand.com
Editor’s note: Leslie sometimes receives e-mails to
which he is unable to respond due to the sender’s automatic return
address being incorrect. If you have sent him an e-mail to which you have
not received a reply, this may be why. To ensure his prompt response to
your enquiry, please include your complete return e-mail address, or a
contact phone/fax number.
Snap Shots: Pseudo
infrared photography
by Harry Flashman
One of the great mysteries of photography is infrared
film. Weird images with psycho colours or strangely reversed black and
white tones are the hallmarks of using this type of film. While the
results are unique, it is however a pain in the butt to use.
Infrared was developed in the 1930’s for
reconnaissance and scientific work, because it works in a different end of
the colour scale from usual. This means that it can pick up differences in
crops and foliage, imperfections in the skin not visible with the naked
eye and can even show if a painter painted over a previous canvas. The
film is actually recording the infrared radiation of light waves that the
human naked eye response cannot see.
The
problems with using this kind of film are many, including the fact that
you have to load and unload your camera in the dark; you have to use a
different focussing scale (most lenses have an IR mark on the barrel to
use instead of the normal, highlighted in white). You also have to guess
the speed rating of the film in most instances, with the ASA value being
an inspired guess by the manufacturer. Even if you find some of this film
in this country, the last problem is that you will have extreme difficulty
finding a lab that can process it and print from this film.
So you have seen some great different shots in a photo
magazine and have decided you want some weird effects but are not ready
for the hassles of IR film. There is good news. You can get the same type
of effects very simply; you only have to convince your photo processor to
do it for you!
The
secret is to go and shoot a roll of slide film. Fuji Velvia is nice, or
Kodak 100 ASA and take the roll for processing as slide film - BUT - and
this has to be stressed, you must ask that they do not mount the slides,
but leave the roll just like strips of negatives. This is important!
Having got your slide film back, select a few images,
ones with different strong colours are best, and give them to the photo
processing people with the instruction that they are to treat the slide
film strips as if they were negatives and run them through their printing
machine. Try to select images that have a full range of colours - reds,
greens and blues.
When you see the result you will want to do it again,
but this time as an enlargement. Wild, wild colours that have no bearing
on reality. They will look like photographs from another planet, and
people will ask you how on earth you managed to get these images. You, of
course, will say infrared film and smile, knowing full well that the
enquirer will not be able to get IR film let alone have it processed. Oh
we are sneaky people when we want to be, us photographers.
Beating humidity
Now the hot steamy wet season is with us it is prudent
to look at protecting your lenses from the effects of humidity. This is
easily overcome with sachets of silica gel. If you can’t buy any of the
small silica gel bags, you will often find them in the top of bottles of
tablets. You can put them in an oven (even a micro-wave) and heat them up
to bring them back to top condition again. I just pop one inside the
little pouches that the lenses are stored in and every so often refresh
them with another blast in the oven. A simple little trick that works
well.
Modern Medicine: The
wise consumer Part 2
by Dr Iain Corness Consultant
Last week I spoke on what you, as a wise and informed
medical consumer, should expect as one who will be swallowing pills and
potions in an effort to rid yourself of the black plague, or other ills.
The message was one of being informed, rather than being overly worried.
However, being fed pharmaceuticals is only part of the
medical consumer picture. What about the ordering of tests? Now some will
say, “How would I know what tests should be done? I’m not a doctor!”
And of course, that is correct - but, never forget, gentle consumer, that
you are the one that pays for the tests, not the doctor who orders them!
As a consumer it is your right to be an informed one,
so you should not be embarrassed to ask the doctor why any particular test
is being proposed. I should also point out that you should ask in a
friendly and un-challenging way. Your doctor will be happy to tell you the
reason for a proposed Ultrasound examination, for example, could be to
look for gall stones, but to challenge by saying “Is this test really
necessary?” would be enough to put your doctor in a defensive mode,
rather than an informative one.
The intelligent consumer is then one who has become
involved in his or her own diagnosis, and is following the logical steps
that the doctor is taking to make your final diagnosis. At this stage
there are a number of possible reasons, and this is called the
differential diagnosis stage. Which one is it (called the ‘definitive’
diagnosis)? You never know, you may even find the quest becomes quite
exciting!
After the tests to determine the definitive diagnosis,
the next step is treatment. If this is done by medicines, refer to last
week’s column, but if the next stage involves surgery, then again, as a
wise consumer, you have to be informed. You should enquire as to what the
operation entails. What part(s) of you do they intend to remove? What
would happen if they don’t operate? What is the likelihood of success or
a cure? Remember, however, that in medicine we never give 100% guarantees,
but we can say that there is a 99% chance that everything will be fine -
but we need that leeway, even if it is only 1%.
Grasp the concept that you have the final say - but
make sure you are fully informed. For example, if I were 84 years old and
my doctor were to tell me I had some form of cancer that was going to
entail horrendous operations which would have me in hospital for months to
recover from the operation, then I would want to know some more details.
If the operation was successful, how much longer would I live? Would I be
able to do everything I do right now? What will happen if I don’t have
the op? On one side you may live for another year but spend six months in
hospital, while on the other live for six months and only spend one week
in hospital with no operations. You make that choice!
Dear
Hillary,
I have noticed that you spend much of your column
appealing to your worried clients to send you champagne and chocolates. Do
you think this is fair? These people have problems and you dismiss them
with a “send chocolates and champagne” answer. What is it with you and
the chewies anyway?
Perplexed
Dear Perplexed,
You young people are all the same these days - wanting
an answer for everything. Some things are just written in the stars, my
Petal. I suppose you also want to know why the earth is round, when the
simple answer is just because it is! Likewise with Hillary and my
chocolates. Now, for having read your letter, Perplexed, that’s one
chocolate bar. For replying to it that’s another. Remember that not
everyone is like you, my little enquirer. That lovely man Jack Wild, who
wants to build me a Grand Hyatt Erawan in the front garden of my townhouse
dropped in a beautiful bottle of New Zealand wine the other day. Thanks
Jack. Jack knows what life’s about, Petal! You’ll get there too -
eventually!
Dear Hillary,
Having given a young lady, who works in the local
hostelry, some shelter for one night, I now find that when I drop in for a
beer and a chat, all the other girls rush off and get Miss Wunnite Satand
for me. This would be fun if I actually wanted to chat to this young lady,
but there is another that interests me more. How do I get over this
problem and get to speak to the one I want, not the one the others want me
to see?
Chuck
Dear Chuck,
I wish all the questions were as easy to answer as this
one. The way around this is to be honest and tell your Ms. Wunnite Satand
(lovely name, isn’t it - I’m sure you didn’t make it up) that you
would like to speak with her sister Ms. Neksnite Satand and could she
bring her over and here’s 100 baht for your trouble. She will understand
and co-operate fully. If you have tipped a little heavily before, then be
prepared to double the finder’s fee.
Dear Hillary,
My husband appears to have a problem, which in turn
gives me a problem. He has a tendency to drink heavily at times and then
can go into extreme rages. During one of these turns he can do anything -
stupid things like breaking windows or other destructive acts. I never
know what to do when he gets like this, and neither does any of our
friends as a few of them have witnessed it too, and some have refused to
go out with us, “just in case.” Have you any suggestions that I could
follow?
Confused and Worried
Dear Confused and Worried,
You surely do have the cares of the world on your
shoulders, but you are probably shouldering more than you should. Unless
you are the cause of your husband’s drinking, the main problem revolves
around his responses to too much alcohol. Why does he overindulge? Does he
admit to the irrational behaviour? Is he sorry afterwards, or does he
blame someone else - or you? Quite frankly, I think you need to get him to
seek professional help. Just be sympathetic towards his problem, but
don’t wear it yourself. He must do the leg-work, not you. Best of luck.
Dear Hillary,
I have been told by some friends over here that my Thai
children cannot inherit my estate if I die. Their mother and I have been
together for fifteen years, but we have never been “officially”
married and I have a grown up family back home (UK). What is the situation
as regards these children? Surely what I have in Thailand is theirs? With
what my friends are telling me, I am worried that in the event of my dying
(I am 66 at present and the children are 12, 10 and 7) they will be left
with nothing. I don’t have much, but the UK family is all grown up and
can take care of themselves. Can you sort this out, Hillary?
Ready to Die
Dear Ready to Die,
Please don’t do it yet. There are a few things you
have to do before you pop off, Petal. First, have you made a valid will in
Thailand? If you have not, then your family in the UK would have certain
rights to your estate, which could rate higher than your Thai children’s
rights. It is all very complicated, as these things always are. There’s
nothing like a funeral to get family members scratching each other’s
eyes out! The important factor to protect your kiddies here is to see an
accredited lawyer who will register your will in English and in Thai. If
you really are that close to shuffling off then do it today! For that
matter, do it today anyway - you might get run over by a rampant baht bus.
Your embassy can advise you on lawyers if you are unsure. Hillary is glad
to see that you are protecting the welfare and future of your new family
too.
GRAPEVINE
The
redneck letter
For those who haven’t seen it:
Dear Billy Joe Bob, I’m writing this slowly
because I know you can’t read fast. We don’t live where we did
when you left home. Your pa read in the newspaper that most accidents
happen within twenty minutes of home, so we moved. I won’t be able
to send you the address because the last family that lived here took
the house numbers with them when they moved so they wouldn’t need to
change their address.
This place is really nice. It even has a washing
machine. I’m not sure it works so well though. Last week, I put a
load of clothes in and pulled the chain. We haven’t seen them since.
The weather isn’t so bad. It has only rained twice in a week, the
first time for three days and the second time for four days.
About that coat you wanted me to send. Your Uncle
Bubba said it would be too heavy to send in the mail with the buttons
on, so we cut them off and put them in the pockets.
Your sister had a baby this morning, but I
haven’t found out yet what it is, so I don’t know if it’s your
aunt or your uncle. The baby looks just like your brother.
Three of your friends went off a bridge in a pickup
truck. Butch was driving and he rolled down the window and swam to
safety. Your other two friends were in the back, but they drowned
because they couldn’t get the tailgate down.
Sorry there’s no real news. I’ll write again if
anything happens.
Your favorite cousin, Virgil
More quiz answers
What is artificial insemination? When the farmer
does it to the bull instead of the cow.
What are steroids? Things for keeping carpets still
on the stairs.
How can you delay milk turning sour? Keep it in the
cow.
What guarantees may a mortgage company insist on?
If you are buying a house, they will insist you are well endowed.
How is dew formed? The sun shines down on the
leaves and makes them perspire.
What is a planet? A body of earth surrounded by
sky.
In a democratic society, why are elections
important? Very important. Sex can only occur when a male has an
election.
What is a terminal illness? When you are sick at
the airport.
Use the word judicious in a sentence. Hands that
judicious can be soft as your face.
What does the word benign mean? Benign is what you
will be after eight.
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More quotable quotes
My idea of an agreeable person is someone who
agrees with me. (Benjamin Disraeli)
God will pardon me. It’s his business. (Heinrich
Heine)
Bankruptcy is a legal proceeding in which you put
your money in your pants pocket and give your coat to your creditors.
(Sam Goldwyn)
Marriage is a wonderful institution, but who wants
to live in an institution? (Groucho Marx)
A politician is a man who will double cross that
bridge when he comes to it. (Oscar Levant)
Liberals feel worthy of their possessions.
Conservatives feel they deserve everything they’ve stolen. (Mort
Sahl)
I don’t want yes men around me. I want everybody
to tell me the truth even if it costs them their jobs. (Sam Goldwyn)
End-All Virus
If you receive an e-mail message with “End-All
Virus” in the Subject line, don’t open it. If you do: End-All will
re-write your hard drive. Not only that, it will scramble any disks
that are even close to your computer. It will recalibrate your
refrigerators coolness setting so all your ice cream goes melty. It
will demagnetize the strips on all your credit cards, screw up the
tracking on your VCR and use subspace field harmonics to scratch any
CDs you try to play. It will give your ex-girlfriend/boyfriend your
new phone number. It will mix Kool-Aid into your fish tank. It will
leave dirty socks on the coffee table when company comes over. End-All
will give you Dutch Elm disease. It will leave the toilet seat up. It
will hide your car keys when you are late for work. It invites your
mother-in-law over for a month. It replaces the sugar in your coffee
with sweetener, gives you a headache with Excedrin written all over
it, causes your cable to only tune in home repair programs, makes you
walk with a limp, cancels all your magazine subscriptions, and makes
you personally responsible for the Red River flood. It moves your car
randomly around parking lots so you can’t find it. It will kick your
dog. It is insidious and subtle. It is dangerous and terrifying to
behold. It is also a rather interesting shade of mauve.
Tailpieces
1st man, “Pattaya sure is a sleazy city don’t
you think?” 2nd man, “It depends where you go. The Tiger Zoo is a
family spot for example.” 1st man, “Yes I know, I first picked up
my wife there.”
Customer, “This beer is frozen solid. I can’t
drink this.” Waitress, “Never mind, you can take home for
later.”
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Social Commentary by Khai Khem
Figures don't lie?
We’ve all been hammered now and then by the tired
aphorism “Figures don’t lie”. Or do they? It depends. The hackneyed
expression as it stands is ridiculous. Figures are used and distorted
equally by the most devious and the most guileless, the selfish and the
selfless, to buttress their arguments. Because columns of numbers, graphs
and charts are usually accepted as accurate and authoritative, they
increasingly decorate every sort of news media and bureaucratic report.
Frankly, we should be a little suspicious, distrustful, and perhaps even
resentful of this growing dependence on surveys, charts and graphs and stop
letting other people think for us.
A few years ago this nation was enjoying a renaissance of
economic growth and modernisation, a stock market boom, and generally
looking forward to a leap into progress and a prosperous future. By all
reports, news, balance sheets, a rising stock market, our whole region was
looking pretty good. Then came the crash, shock, and disappointment. The
figures, as it turned out, were not the whole picture.
Another good example of how figures are used to project a
certain viewpoint are the books and reports which come out on the state of
the health of Planet Earth. One school of thought creates statistics which
estimate that one entire species of life becomes extinct on earth each day.
Some reports show figures which cite estimates that from one to two species
of plants alone leave us each day. A Smithsonian news report warns that
between now and the end of the century species will disappear at the rate of
one per hour. At that rate, even though I haven’t done the math,
common sense tells me that in 100 years this will be a Lonely Planet,
indeed. Maybe that’s why there are so many alien spacecraft sighted in the
past few decades. Extra terrestrials have been watching the numbers and are
getting ready to pick up a lot of ready real estate.
These sources are, according to the figures represented,
reliable, authoritative and well-meaning. The point her, is that we should
all learn to process information with personal discrepancy and common sense.
Perhaps we should be quicker to quibble over discrepancies, especially if
they challenge our own preconceptions or concerns, much in the way we would
do with our taxes.
Certainly we need to filter and evaluate the massive
output of information which is now a hallmark of modern society. Recently
there was a TV program on the air in which the main topic is pets. A
psychologist who specialises in matching people’s personalities with a dog
breed (yes, you read that right) told us that in the USA one out of four
puppies who go home with new owners don’t last in that home a complete
year. They are given away or abandoned because the owner has chosen the
wrong breed and that breed’s personality is not compatible with that of
its owner. This chap also said there are over 1 million people in the USA
who set up legal wills which leave all their personal wealth to their dogs.
(Obviously these owners and dogs were well matched.) Is the ‘doggie/owner
therapy profession’ massaging these numbers to kick start a new growth
industry? How can we tell? And frankly, should we care?
There used to be an old expression: “Don’t believe
anything you read and only half of what you see”. I won’t advise going
that far. In this age of information, if we don’t keep up, we get left
behind. All of us, whether we know it or not, are absorbing mountains of
information daily. We just need to be a little discerning about the
conclusions we eventually make.
Women’s World: Just
what I needed
by Lesley Warner
When I came home last night my body was aching all over
from running around all day. I thought what I need is a long soak in a
relaxing bath; the problem is I don’t have a bath! But for those of you
with the benefit of a bath try some of these recipes and as you enjoy your
soak, think of those of us with just a cold-water shower.
While you are relaxing in this wonderful bath don’t
forget to use one of the face pack recipes that I have given you previously,
this is an ideal opportunity for that quiet time. Escape into the bathroom,
lock the door, and become ‘deaf’. The secondhand tea bags could come
into use as well, just lay back and enjoy.
When you finish your soak in the bath, after patting your
skin dry, use one of the moisturizers we’ve have talked about in the past.
This is an ideal opportunity to check your feet for any dry skin; it will be
easily removed with a normal pumice stone you can purchase from the chemist.
Also cutting toenails is easy after soaking, but take care as they are
vulnerable to abuse at this time, don’t cut down the sides.
All these recipes are easy to make and use...
For aches and pains
1 cup baking soda, 1/2 cup Epsom salts, 1/2 tsp vitamin
E, 1/2 cup rock salt, 2 tsp almond oil, 20 drops Patchouli essential oil, 5
drops Vetivert essential oil, 15 drops Cypress essential oil.
Put all salts and baking soda into a bowl. Mix all the
other ingredients together in a second bowl, then pour them into the first
bowl and mix thoroughly. Try a little food colouring of your choice to make
it look nice. Use 3-4 tablespoons in the bath.
Honey soak
2 cups milk, 1-cup honey, 1-cup salt, 1/4-cup baking
soda, 1/2-cup baby oil, a few drops of Fragrance oil of your choice. Combine
ingredients in a bowl. Fill your bath and pour the mixture in.
Bath cocktail
1 egg, 2 tablespoons honey, 1/2-cup baby oil, 1/4-cup
milk, 2 teaspoons liquid soap, 1/4-cup vodka, essential oil of your choice.
Mix all ingredients in a blender for 30 seconds. Use only one or two
tablespoons of this oil in a bathtub of water.
This one is a quickie. 1-cup salt, 1-cup Epsom salt,
1-cup baking soda, a little fragrance oil of your choice. Add a couple of
tablespoons to the bath. For bubbles, add a cup of shampoo.
If you like lots of bubbles try this one. 2 cups of
grated soap, 1-gallon water, 1/2-cup glycerin, 2 cups shampoo, scented oil
of your choice. Mix the soap flakes, water and 2 tbsp glycerin in a pan,
heat slowly, stirring occasionally until the soap has dissolved. Add 2 cups
of this mixture to the rest of the glycerin and shampoo plus a few drops of
your scented oil. Mix it all together in a bowl. Put into a sealed container
and store in a cool place. Add about one cup to your bath as it’s filling
(you can use this liquid soap as an all-purpose soap).
Everyone likes herbs these days so try this herbal bath.
Add herbs directly into your bath water - it’s very easy, put the herbs
into a muslin bag and tie it directly under the tap as the water is running.
You can also add scented oil to the mixture if you want to. These are a few
ideas for herbs to use:
Chamomile - soothing and cleansing
Comfrey - rejuvenating
Lovage - deodorizing and cleansing
Lady’s mantle - soothes skin irritation
Black tea - relieving sunburn pain
Mint - soothing and relaxing
Lavender - relaxing and aromatic
Who needs a herd of goats - this is the 21st century, if
Cleopatra can do it why not us. Just add 1/2 - 1 cup of dried milk to your
bath water for a softening and soothing bath. Or try 2 cups dry milk powder,
1-cup cornstarch, a few drops of a fragrance oil of your choice. Blend
together all ingredients in blender. Add 1/2 cup of mixture to hot bath
water.
Shaman’s Rattle: Reincarnation
- Have we all been here before?
by Marion
For many, the concept of reincarnation is one that
fascinates. Why should I just die? Surely there is more to it than one
fleeting visit to planet Earth? Is this the dress rehearsal or the final
show?
If one is Tibetan, then reincarnation is taken as a very
normal and accepted part of life, living and dying. The current Dalai Lama,
claimed as the fourteenth reincarnation of the original Dalai Lama, has
said, “Death is just a change of clothes.”
So whose wardrobe should we be looking in? Is there
anything that can give credence to these claims? Like many things in life,
the answer is a definite maybe! The reason that there remains some
scientific doubt is because it is very hard to apply the rigid principles of
science to any examination of reincarnation. The investigator cannot easily
step back in time to check with people living “then” and can only rely
on the word of witnesses “now” - none of which is 100% conclusive.
However, there exists enough anecdotal evidence to make even the greatest
sceptic think twice.
One researcher was Dr Ian Stevenson, an American
psychiatrist who published a treatise called “Twenty cases suggestive of
Reincarnation” in 1966. Two years later he again published more cases,
having by then studied over 1,200 reports. Dr. Stevenson was also moved to
record that (his reports) “do much more than suggest reincarnation; they
seem to furnish considerable evidence for it.”
Take, for example, the following case histories. A six
year old boy in Japan described his previous life in another Japanese town.
He named his parents, described his father’s death and his own death from
smallpox. The investigators took him to the town, and he was immediately
conversant with the layout of it, even to the point of being able to
identify buildings that had been erected after “his” death as they had
not been present while “he” was alive. He gave sixteen specific
statements about his previous life in the village, all of which turned out
to be correct, and none of which could he have found out elsewhere.
In another, from the age of two years a boy in Lebanon
claimed he was the son of another family living in another city. He was
investigated by Dr. Stevenson when he was five years old. The young man
described being a young adult, and he had a car and a rifle in the previous
existence. He spoke of his cousin being killed in a road accident and other
personal details of the previous life. When Dr. Stevenson took this 5 year
old to the other city, he immediately greeted his (previous) sister by name,
identified his bedroom and described how the furniture had been arranged.
Even more chilling was the fact that he knew exactly what his last words had
been when his previous being had died, a fact verified by his sister.
Even more detailed is the case of a young ten year old
girl, Swarnlata Mishar, who identified herself as being the reincarnation of
a woman Biya Pathak, who had died twenty years previously in another town.
The following is extracted from Dr. Stevenson’s records of Swarnlata’s
published case. In the summer of 1959, Biya Pathak’s husband, son, and
eldest brother journeyed to the town where Swarnlata lived, to test
Swarnlata’s memory. They did not reveal their identities or purpose to
others in the town, but enlisted nine townsmen to accompany them to the
Mishar home, where they arrived unannounced.
Swarnlata immediately recognized her brother and called
him “Babu”, Biya’s pet name for him. Ten-year-old Swarnlata went
around the room looking at each man in turn; some she identified as men she
knew from her town, some were strangers to her. Then she came to Sri
Chintamini Pandey, Biya’s husband. Swarnlata lowered her eyes, looked
bashful - as Hindu wives do in the presence of their husbands - and
identified him. Swarnlata also correctly identified her son from her past
life, Murli, who was 13 years old when Biya died. Those were just some of
the details in this remarkable case. One that has been accepted as a true
example of reincarnation both by the Pathak (previous) family and the
Mishars. Remember too, that none of Dr. Stevenson’s cases were recalling
their former lives while under hypnosis - an investigative technique that
has fallen into disrepute.
Of course, those people who claim to be Julius Caesar
reincarnate and speak in English and not in Latin, or the host of Napoleons
who can’t speak French are amongst those who have brought the concept of
reincarnation into the realm of vaudeville performances, but since
approximately 25% of the world’s population earnestly does believe in
reincarnation, perhaps we should look more closely at it? Or should we wait
till the next life?
Animal Crackers: Polar
Bears
by Mirin MacCarthy
(Scientific name: Ursus maritimus)
Polar bears are the largest bears in the world. In
general, adult polar bears stand approximately 1 metre tall when on all
fours and have an approximate body length from nose to tail of 2.5 to 3.5
metres. The females weigh around 300 kilograms while the males are generally
larger and weigh 500 to 600 kilograms. However, they can grow much larger,
and there is a record of an adult male polar bear weighing over 1000
kilograms.
Polar
bears have a heavy stout body with strong muscular legs and well-developed
neck muscles. Compared to other bears, the head of a polar bear is
proportionally smaller and the neck is longer, to allow them to keep their
head above water while swimming. They have short, fur covered ears and a
very short tail. The body fur is very heavy. The colour varies from pure
white to more of a yellow hue. The white fur is important camouflage for the
bears as they hunt their prey out on the ice pack. The coat consists of two
layers - an undercoat of fine white hair and an outer coat composed of long
guard hairs which are hollow and help to make the polar bear more buoyant
when swimming. While the external coat is white, the true colour of the
polar bear’s skin is black, thought to be an adaptation for better heat
retention.
Polar bears are interesting in the fact that they are
descended from the vegetarian brown bears, but have adapted to become
carnivorous and to be able to withstand the privations of their arctic
homelands.
The current theories indicate that somewhere during the
mid-Pleistocene period (roughly 100,000 to 250,000 years ago), a number of
brown bears became isolated by glaciers. Instead of perishing on the ice,
they began a rapid series of evolutionary changes in order to survive, and
today, polar bears are totally adapted to their harsh northern environment.
They are found in all of the polar regions of the entire
northern hemisphere including Russia, Norway, Greenland, America and Canada.
Their preferred habitat is in the area where the northern seas meet the
shoreline. In this area, there is a constant freezing and thawing of the
ice. It is also the preferred habitat of their favourite prey, the seal.
Since their food swims, so do the polar bears which are
able to swim more than 100 kilometres without a pause to rest. Using their
very large forepaws for propulsion and their rear paws as rudders, they can
maintain an average swimming speed of approximately 10 kilometres per hour.
Their diet consists mostly of marine mammals such as the ringed seals,
bearded seals and occasionally a walrus pup. If available, they will kill a
seal every few days. They can, however, go weeks between meals as they have
a very large stomach capacity which is designed to allow them to take
advantage of unexpected large meals which will serve to tide them over
during leaner times.
The home range is the area an animal travels in its
normal activities of gathering food, mating and caring for its young, and
polar bears have enormous home ranges. These bears cover very long distances
in their constant search for seals. It has been estimated that an individual
polar bear will cover an area equal to 259,000 square kilometres during its
lifetime.
To keep the numbers up, a litter of cubs is generally
around two, and the young stay with the mother until they are around two and
a half years old, whereupon they then go out onto the ice to fend for
themselves, while their mother prepares for her next litter.
It is estimated that there are currently somewhere
between 20,000 and 40,000 polar bears. Canada has the largest population
with approximately 15,000 bears living in the Canadian Arctic archipelago
and the Hudson Bay-James Bay regions.
The computer doctor
by Richard Brunch
From Jas Nolan, Rayong: I’ve
just bought a CD-RW drive, a Sony, not that I think that makes any
difference. I took the drive back to the shop I bought if from as I thought
it wasn’t working correctly as I kept getting ‘overrun’ errors.
However in the shop it is fine but in my PC I have only managed one
successful burn and obviously, quite apart from wasting CD’s, I am not
able to write the information I require which was the purpose of the
exercise in the first place. Any advice would be appreciated.
Computer Doctor replies: I think your CD-RW drive has
proved to be working OK; the problem therefore appears to be of a local
issue with your hardware and/or software. Unfortunately you haven’t given
me any details as to the recording software you are using, hardware and
operating system so I will talk in general terms. One thing CD-RW’s all
require is a constant stream of uninterrupted data from the source whether
this is a CD or CD ROM and this needs to be supplied fast enough to keep up
with the selected recording speed. You may find that just reducing the
recording speed to say 6x or 4x may well solve the problem, even though this
will significantly decrease the speed at which the CD is written. However,
there are some basic things you should check before submitting to this speed
reduction. Initially, try doing as much as you can to reduce the load on the
CPU during the burn process. Close all unnecessary programs, these include
screen savers, real-time virus checking, disk maintenance software, check
the system tray and close those background applications, for those that
don’t have an Exit or Close feature it may be necessary to install a
program like Startup Cop to prevent these applications starting with
Windows, obviously a restart will be required after deselecting applications
with Startup Cop. Also if your PC is connected to a network, if possible log
off for the duration of the burn, or as a minimum disable File and Printer
sharing. If your CD-RW is of the IDE variety also ensure that it is on a
different IDE channel to the source drive; most motherboards will have at
least two IDE channels each of which is capable of supporting two devices.
Be mindful though that mixing UDMA modes on the same channel will reduce
that channel to the lowest UDMA device, so if you had a UDMA 100 device
(Hard Disk) and UDMA 33 (CD ROM) on the same channel the hard disk would
perform as a UDMA 33 device. Another thing which will enhance throughput is
to ensure that if devices can support DMA (Direct Memory Access) then this
should be enabled. This can be done by selecting Device Manager in Control
Panel then the device and Properties. A restart will be required in order
for these changes to take effect. Finally, before doing the burn, if this is
from a local hard disk, defragment the hard disk; this will greatly reduce
the overall load. If you are unlucky and these suggestions do not enable you
to burn at 12x, then reduce the burn speed by one increment at a time,
through 8x, 6x, 4x and finally 2x, corresponding burn times in minutes for a
650Mb CD are – 6, 10, 18, 36.
Send your questions or comments to the Pattaya Mail at
370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, 20260 or Fax to 038 427 596 or
E-mail to pcdoctor@pattayamail.com
The views and comments expressed within this column are
not necessarily those of the writer or Pattaya Mail Publishing.
Richard Bunch is managing director of Action Computer Technologies Co., Ltd.
For further information, please telephone 01 782 4829, fax 038 716 816,
e-mail: sales@act.co.th or see our
website www.act.co.th
A Slice of Thai History:
The Lao Invesion of Thailand, 1827-1828 (Part One Background)
by Duncan Stearn
It has often been said that, ‘One man’s terrorist is
another man’s freedom fighter’ and the semantic lines are definitely
coloured along racial grounds when looking back at the Lao invasion of
Thailand in 1827. For the Thais, the attack was a rebellion launched by a
vassal state, while for the Lao it was seen as a war of independence.
Although Britain had negotiated the Burney Treaty of
Commerce with Thailand in June 1826, relations had soured somewhat between
the two nations over increasing British influence in the Malay states, some
of which were ostensibly vassals of Thailand.
Laos, which was divided up into a number of separate
kingdoms (Vientiane, Luang Prabang, Champassak, Xieng Khouang), also paid
allegiance to Thailand, although the state of Vientiane sent tribute for a
time to the emperor of Vietnam.
With the British looming as a security threat following a
successful war with Burma, as well as encroaching further into the Malay
Peninsula, the Thais seemed preoccupied with events to the south of Bangkok
and the time appeared ripe for a quick strike against them by the Lao state
of Vientiane.
King Chao Anu was a son of the last independent ruler of
Vientiane, and, along with two of his brothers had spent the years between
1782 and 1793 at the Thai court in the new capital of Bangkok.
Chao Anu fought alongside Thai forces in a brief war
against the Burmese, impressing his overlords and gaining the confidence of
key figures in the Thai royal household so that his accession to the throne
of Vientiane in 1804 was hardly opposed.
Soon after taking the throne, Chao Anu began sending
tribute to Vietnam. However, he ceased this practice in 1817 and began
strengthening his military forces in preparation for an eventual showdown
with Thailand.
In 1819 a revolt in the Lao state of Champassak was put
down with some difficulty by Thai forces, supported by troops loyal to Chao
Anu. In 1821, King Rama II of Thailand was persuaded by Chao Anu to appoint
his (Anu’s) son Chao Yo as the new sovereign of Champassak.
Unfortunately for Chao Anu, while he gained military
strength, he neglected to improve relations between Vientiane and Luang
Prabang and the fact that his son was now the ruler of Champassak was a
bitter pill not easily swallowed by the erstwhile claimants to the throne of
this Lao state. Additionally, his belief that he would be supported in his
attack on Thailand by Vietnam was seriously flawed. He had taken action to
obtain effective control of the small province of Xieng Khouang, an area
claimed by the Vietnamese authorities to be under their sway.
Basically, Chao Anu’s failure to unite the Lao people
against the Thais, as well as the realisation among a number of high-ranking
Lao officials that Thailand was too strong to be defeated, meant that his
chances of carrying out a successful rebellion were extremely limited. In
fact, his own Viceroy disagreed with Chao Anu’s aims and maintained secret
communication with Bangkok.
Antiques, are they
genuine? : Plates and Dishes
by Apichart Panyadee
Dinner plates, soup plates and meat dishes, which were
produced in their thousands for affluent 18th century families, were usually
of plain circular design until 1740. After this date the fashion was for
shaped circular plates with gadroon borders, and many plain services were
returned by patrons to their silversmith for updating. If they were not
re-marked, the original marks will have been distorted and partly lost
during the refashioning. This is easily detected.
Notice
the maker’s mark is missing and that the lion passant mark is eroded in a
peculiar fashion not consistent with normal wear
Another inventive use for the dinner plate during the
last hundred years has been re-hammering them into more useful and appealing
rose bowls and strawberry dishes. Again, stretched marks will give this
away. More difficult to detect is the conversion of soup plates into dinner
plates by removing the centre of the plate, cutting it down, re-hammering
and soldering back into the border. An original scratch weight is always a
useful check, as soup plates tend to be between seven and one half percent
and fifteen percent heavier than dinner plates.
This
mustard pot has genuine 1791 marks which were probably taken from a spoon
Entree dishes have been remarkably free from tampering,
but the collector should watch for the addition of decoration and the
replacement of detachable handles. Soup tureens and sauce tureens are in the
same category, with the following additional points: look out for let-in
makers on pedestal feet and make sure a full set of marks appears.
Otherwise, the piece may be a converted liner. Soup tureens made in the
period of 1805-184- often had detachable liners. These liners will have the
same set of marks as the tureen except that the town mark (leopard’s head
or mask in the case of London) will have been omitted. The faker in the past
found a variety of uses for both the tureen liner and the wine cooler liner.
While the former can be turned into baskets, bowls or tureens, the latter
can, by the addition of lids, become biscuit barrels or ice buckets.
Cake/dessert, or sweetmeat baskets are extremely popular and apart from the
converted liners already mentioned, dismantled epergnes and converted
goblets are the two most common deceptions.
Cow Creamers and Porringers
Popular interest in collecting silver was immortalised by
Bertie Wooster’s antics with cow creamers and porringers. The cow creamer
in its original form was almost exclusively made by John Schuppe in London
between 1750 and 1775, while the ‘modern Dutch’ replicas were made from
the 1800’s onwards. Eighteenth century examples are clearly identifiable
from the hallmarks. Claims for those without marks should be given a wide
berth. However, the modern Dutch cow creamer is worth one-tenth the value of
an 18th century English one.
A
goblet can be converted to a sweetmeat basket. Another possible conversion
to look for is a goblet bowl turned into a wine funnel
Beakers are not very common in English silver and caution
should be taken over 17th century examples which bear the hallmark on the
base. There is a chance that these may have been re-bodied. Be careful to
compare the wear and colour of both body and base. Other conversions and
fakes to watch for which are not so common are: tankard lids converted to
bleeding bowls, wine coasters converted to soy frames, punch ladles made
into mustard pots by the addition of lids and handles, snuff boxes converted
into vinaigrettes by adding grilles, and teapots made into toasting racks by
soldering on bars. Goblets can also be converted into a sweetmeat basket,
and occasionally the collector will come across a goblet bowl turned into a
wine funnel. These items, especially mustard pots and perhaps cigarette
boxes may have a genuine mark, but often it was taken from a spoon. In these
cases, the style may be wrong for the period or the maker’s mark in the
wrong place.
Guide to buying a large
dog: Pointer
by C. Schloemer
Good Points: equable temperament, obedient, good with
children, easily trained, excellent gun dog, makes a good household pet,
successful show dog
Take Heed: needs plenty of exercise
The
Pointer comes by his name honestly. He is famed for his classic pose;
‘pointing’ with its nose and tail in the direction of the game which has
been shot. He was the first dog, as far as we know, to stand the game in the
sense we know today.
Clean-limbed, lithe, and muscular, without being coarse,
this dog is put together for speed and endurance. Possessing courage, and
the ability to concentrate on his job, he is an ideal dog for the owner who
wants results in the field. He requires less personal attention than some
other gun dogs, and will work satisfactorily for someone other than his own
master and handler.
The Pointer develops the hunting instinct at a tender
age. Puppies of two months frequently point, and for this reason, they are
especially suited for derby and puppy stakes.
His friendly disposition makes him a much loved family
pet, or a dog which can easily adapt to kennel life as well. Those owners
who have their eyes on the ring will be pleased with their choice of this
breed. His short coat makes his outline, conformation, and quality easily
seen at a glance, and the Pointer is a superb poser.
Size: Desirable height of dog 63.5-68.5 cm, bitch,
61-66 cm
Exercise: Full of nervous energy, and the love of the
‘hunt’, the Pointer needs ample exercise. Owners who have time to take
this breed out for plenty of free runs will find they get on well with other
animals and are easily socialized. Early training with leash and voice
commands will be rewarded with obedience.
Grooming: This breed’s short coat demands less time
devoted to grooming, and makes him clean and neat enough for even the most
fastidious homeowner to have around the house. Daily brushing should
suffice.
Origin and History: There has been some controversy
as to the Pointer’s historical origins. For years it was believed that the
first Pointers used in England were imports from Spain and Portugal. But
that theory has been pretty much disproved through the years. It seems more
likely that Pointers came into use in Spain, Portugal, and the British Isles
about the same time.
A great authority on the breed, William Arkwright of
Sutton Scarsdale, England, spent his life traveling the world to check on
the history and development of the breed. He believed that it originated in
the East, found its way to Italy, then to Spain (where it developed its
classic head), and then to England and South America. However, the development
of the English Pointer took place within the confines of Great Britain. The
first Pointers of which there is any dependable record appeared in England
around 1650. Coursing with Greyhounds was a favorite sport of those times,
and the earliest accounts of Pointers reveal that they were taken a field to
actually locate and point at hares. When the hare had been found, the
Greyhounds were unleashed, and the sport began.
As to the Pointer’s lineage, as usual, we find it
something of an enigma, but there is no question that the Foxhound, the
Greyhound and Bloodhound all had a share in its making.
Updated every Friday
Copyright 2001 Pattaya Mail Publishing Co.Ltd.
370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, Chonburi 20260, Thailand
Tel.66-38 411 240-1, 413 240-1, Fax:66-38 427 596; e-mail: ptymail@loxinfo.co.th
Updated by
Chinnaporn Sungwanlek, assisted by Boonsiri Suansuk.
E-Mail: webmaster@pattayamail.com
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