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Money matters: MBMG Special Update - Commodity investing: As good as it gets?
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
It is awfully tempting to cut back on ones commodity
exposure, especially after the spectacular run we have seen over the last
couple of months. The rally in mining equities, in particular, is now 32
months in duration and relative to the previous cycles since 1972, is the
longest in duration. We would argue, however, that the cycle has still
much further to go and that we could see another strong year from
commodity investments. The market has been focusing on demand factors, but
it our belief that investors will increasingly shift their focus to the
supply side of the equation in 2006.
Over the last couple of years mining companies have been loathe to spend
money on Greenfield developments (iron ore and coal excluded), despite the
significant demand from China and other emerging market economies. This is
not surprising when one considers that experienced mining executives have
long memories of the ‘old days’ in the industry, when commodity markets
were characterised by short upward shifts in commodity prices and long
down-cycles.
Mining executives, today, are too focused on returns and do not have
incentives to take on risk to build new mines or smelters. Share buybacks,
higher dividends and M&A are a lower risk strategy than developing a mine,
with four-year lead times and the uncertainty of where prices will be once
the project is finished.
The other factor influencing companies’ decisions is the inertia within
the industry to raise long term commodity assumptions, which were dragged
down during the 1998 Asian crisis. Credit Suisse First Boston argue that
they are far too low, especially given the rising costs of building new
mines and smelters, with them estimating that costs have jumped between
20% and 50% over the past five years. In just one example, CSFB argue that
to justify a return in investment on a new copper mine, the long term
copper price needs to be close to $1.50 per pound, compared with current
industry thinking of $0.90 per pound. Similar outcomes are true for
nickel, zinc and platinum.
Most producers believe that current high prices will be short-lived; hence
producing assets are being run very hot, with capacity utilisation kept
higher for longer. This increases production risks. In addition, high
commodity prices encourage labour groups to push through wage increases
(at a time when companies are already focusing on minimising cost
pressures), thus increasing the likelihood of work stoppages.
In a recent project update, BHP Billiton wrote the following: “Industry
wide, the supply side response to continued strong global demand for raw
materials remains constrained by a shortage of people, equipment and
supplies. This has led to tight labour markets and difficulty in sourcing
construction and drilling plant and machinery, which in turn has led to
rising input costs. Currency strength against the US dollar is also adding
further pressure.”
Caterpillar, the mining equipment supplier, has also made similar
comments, as can be seen by a recent FT report in which they had the
following to say, “Mining equipment is sold out through 2007 and that the
cycle has legs and looks stronger than upturns in the 1980’s and 1990’s.”
However, Caterpillar also said that they “are cautious about creating
overcapacity and that they have had difficulty in obtaining some supplies,
such as tyres, restricting their own production, which is being felt by
their customers in the mining industry”.
In yet another reason why the industry has been slow to build new capacity
has been US Dollar weakness. With the onset of this weakness in 2002,
commodity currencies began to strengthen and strengthened even more as the
physical commodity prices themselves began to rise in 2004. Currencies
such as the Rand, Chilean peso, and the Australian and Canadian dollars
have appreciated by between 25% and 50% since 2002. The strength of these
currencies has created additional cost pressures on local producers and
discouraged new projects, despite rising commodity prices.
Over the last few months, growth investing appears to be back in vogue and
investors are starting to ask for higher earnings streams. This has led to
increasing M&A activity in the commodity space, as the big majors realise
that it is cheaper and a less risky strategy to buy a smaller start up
company, than go into these projects themselves. CSFB are predicting that
2006 will be one of the most active M&A years for corporations in the past
two decades, as the big miners start to appreciate that there is still
significant value that exists in a target’s share price, provided they
eventually come round to adopting higher long-term assumptions.
This in itself will underpin the mining sector this year. However, there
is not an infinite supply of smaller companies out there and it will only
be a matter of time before companies are forced to spend on exploration
once again. But the fact remains that the longer they hold out, the longer
the commodity cycle will be sustained.
The recent price rises in many commodities is still daunting, however, but
when one looks at them in inflation adjusted terms, the moves do not
appear so big. In reality, base metals have been one of the worst
performing assets since 1973. Over that time period they have
significantly underperformed real estate, equities and bonds. In real
terms commodities are not expensive.
Positive supply and demand fundamentals, coupled with attractive “real”
valuations have not gone unnoticed, with UBS and Macquarie estimating that
around $80 billion has been invested in commodity index funds for 2005, up
from $55 billion in 2004 and less than $30 billion in 2003. Based on UBS’
calculations, they estimate that the equivalent of around 3-4% of total
annual production has been ‘bought’ via these indices. But there appears
to be more liquidity to come with Bloomsbury Minerals Economics predicting
that investment in commodity index products could rise from around $80
billion currently to $105-$115 billion by the end of 2006 and $140-$150
billion by the end of 2007.
If these predictions are correct that the impact on base metals could be
significant. UBS estimate that new funds flow into these indices during
2006 could increase the fund position by another 50%. In each case
investment could be sufficient to either intensify a market deficit, or in
some cases turn what could have been a surplus into a deficit.
In conclusion, we do not believe that this is as good as it gets and in
fact we believe that the best is yet to come. However, this recommendation
needs to come with a health warning, especially if the US consumer does
precipitously slow down in the second half of 2006, leading to an
inevitable slowdown in China.
Commodity investments will be impacted by this, which we think will
present a great buying opportunity to buy these assets at cheaper prices,
for the growth in China is not a one year story, but one that we are going
to see played out for the next 10 years. According to research from
Macquarie Bank, even if China were to slow down from current growth rates,
China is still likely to account for 30%+ of world demand by 2010.
Finally, as David Fuller of Fuller money fame so eloquently said, “With
approximately one billion people in the developed world and another five
billion in developing countries, the largest of which are scrambling to
increase GDP and the standard of living for their burgeoning populations,
it is not difficult to envisage a steepening demand curve for all
resources, many of which are finite.”
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Why Kodak is doing (digitally) very well
by Harry Flashman
 A
few weeks ago I mentioned that Kodak, the grandfather of film, was now
the top digital camera seller in the US and ranked third in the world. A
tremendous result for a company that everyone predicted would go to the
wall as digital technology overtook film imaging.
To stay on top of the game, Kodak took a huge leap of faith, boasting
that their next-generation camera offers medium-format image quality and
yet with 35 mm flexibility.
One of their top end cameras was the Kodak Professional DCS Pro SLR/n,
where “n” refers to the Nikon mount so it takes the top of the range
Nikon lenses, while there is also an SLR/c which has the Canon mounting.
With digital cameras like these, one enters a whole new world of
‘computer’ terminology, where, as Kodak says, the DCS Pro SLR/n digital
camera contains a new high performance imaging system with an entirely
new 35 mm size CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor) sensor,
which delivers 14 million pixels with a total available ISO range of 6
to 1600.
Without having to get into e-jargon, 14 mega pixels is an outstanding
number, and to cover the “film” speeds of ISO 6 to ISO 1,600 is a huge
range. With that capability, Kodak said the DCS Pro SLR/n was ideally
suited for wedding photographers and event, portrait, commercial and
advanced amateur photographers as well.
“The DCS Pro SLR/n combines the best of medium format image quality with
the convenience and flexibility of 35 mm photography. Its high ISO
provides excellent performance in low-light settings and captures images
with stunning detail that wedding and event photographers expect. It
also creates amazing images at low ISOs using long exposures,” said
Madhav Mehra, general manager, Professional Digital Capture. “We’ve
accelerated the evolution of the digital SLR with this camera. The DCS
Pro SLR/n is able to merge high-resolution and the best image detail
with a broad ISO range,” he claimed.
Some of the key features were a full-size sensor, so photographers could
regain the benefits of true wide-angle lenses and can use their F-mount
SLR lenses the same way they used them with 35 mm film. With many other
digital SLR’s, the image area is smaller, and you have to apply a
conversion factor to the lenses, as for example, a 24 mm wide angle lens
does not give the same broad lateral coverage in a digital camera, as it
would on a film camera.
Aside from a broad ISO range, the camera’s feature set included long
exposure capabilities, enabling exposures of up to 60 seconds at lower
ISO settings.
The camera captured images at about 1.7 frames per second. Images could
be saved as DCR raw files, normal JPEG files or ERI JPEG files. The
ERI-JPEG files provide two stops of exposure latitude and extended color
space within a JPEG workflow – a benefit which Kodak claimed no
competitor offers. This is equivalent to ‘bracketing’ in the old film
days, to try and get the best exposure. Now in the e-era, this camera
did it for you.
With the electronics covered (and in fact you could download upgrades
from the internet for the DCS Pro SLR/n) and Messrs Nikon (or Canon)
supplying the high quality optics, it would seem that a camera such as
this had the best of both worlds. There is only one major drawback.
Kodak stopped production of it in May last year!
So if this camera was so good, why pull the plug? Kodak explained it
very simply, “Kodak has today (31st May 2005) confirmed that the DCS Pro
SLR/n and DCS Pro SLR/c digital SLRs have been discontinued and will no
longer be manufactured. Kodak will continue to develop CCD and CMOS
image sensors and this announcement does not affect their consumer
digital cameras. Kodak was keen to stress that this does not mark the
end of Kodak digital SLR’s but that they wished to concentrate on market
segments which are more profitable.” So there you have it – the bean
counters said there was not enough profit in high-end professional
equipment!
However, that’s why Kodak continues to make money. And will be around
for many years to come, as they have not lost the financial vision!
Modern Medicine: AAA – and it’s not
your credit rating!
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
AAA stands for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm, and as I have often
pointed out, we doctors love acronyms. I am sure that the education bodies
have decreed that the medical course should contain three years of acronyms,
as well as another three years of clinical practice.
So what is an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA)? First off, what is the aorta?
The aorta is the main artery of the body, directly connected to the heart
and taking the vast majority of the blood from that important central pump
to the abdominal organs and the legs. This artery is around 2 cm in
diameter.
However, a situation can occur, whereby the artery begins to bulge and can
grow to four or five times the normal diameter. It is this swelling that is
called an ‘aneurysm’. Being of the Abdominal Aorta then explains the AAA
description. An aorta is considered ‘aneurysmal’ when it grows more than 50
percent over its normal size. By the way, aneurysms may occur in any blood
vessel in the body, but the most common place is in the abdomen below the
renal arteries (the blood vessels that provide the blood to your kidneys).
Interestingly, aneurysms are four times more common in men than women and
occur most often after 55-60 years of age. Elderly males have yet another
aspect to monitor, as well as their prostates!
The danger of the AAA comes from the fact that this can burst, like an
over-inflated balloon, and the patient experiences a catastrophic internal
haemorrhage. This is generally fatal. Aneurysm rupture affects approximately
15,000 people per year making it the 13th leading cause of death in the US.
The incidence of aortic aneurysm increases every decade as the population
ages. Fortunately, early detection and diagnosis is increasingly possible as
more sophisticated medical screening methods become available.
So why does this aneurysm occur? Aneurysms are caused by a weakening or
damage in the wall of a blood vessel. There are many conditions known to
contribute to the weakening of the artery wall including atherosclerosis
(hardening of the arteries), cigarette smoking, high blood pressure and
inflammation or infection.
Atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) is the most common cause of
abdominal aortic aneurysms. This occurs when substances such as cholesterol,
minerals, and blood cells build up in the walls of the artery, and thus
damaging it. The muscular wall of the aorta weakens and with the pressure
inside the artery, it begins to bulge. High blood pressure may speed up the
weakening, but it is not the cause. Aneurysms also tend to run in families,
so there is the thought that genetics may play a role in who gets an
aneurysm. (When in doubt, blame your parents – for everything!)
There is a strong link between cigarette smoking and the occurrence of
aneurysms. Smokers die four times more often from ruptured aneurysms than
non-smokers. Aneurysms in smokers also expand and weaken faster than those
in non-smokers, making this the one hundred and twenty thousandth good
reason to give up cigarettes.
Unfortunately, until an AAA bursts, there are generally no symptoms to let
you know you have one of these ‘time bombs’ sitting in your belly. The
discovery is then usually during an annual physical, where it can be
palpated by the doctor, but by far more accurate is an ultrasound, which can
give exact dimensions, and thus progressive indication of how rapidly the
swelling is growing.
The answer to this is an operation to replace the swollen, weakened artery,
with a suitable piece of highly expensive ‘garden hose’ of correct length
and diameter. This is a major operation, but once you have had an AAA
detected, there is no other way around the problem. There is also some work
being done on encasing the aorta to contain the swelling, but this is not
the usual method of ‘defusing’ an AAA.
You should be lining up for a routine health check every 12 months, after
you reach 40 years of age. When was your last one?
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
No choccies and champers for you this week, my petal! I’m afraid I must
correct your column of March 10. Captain Roy Brown, the airborne hero who
shot down the Red Baron in April 1918, was not British but Canadian (from
Ontario), although he was fighting with the Royal Flying Corp at the time.
You can read all about it at http://www.billybishop.org/bishop-baron.html.
A Canuck in Paradise
Dear Canuck in Paradise,
In your haste to cut me off from my chocolate supply line, you must have
skimmed my reply and missed the salient details. I wrote, “Captain Arthur
“Roy” Brown, was the British Sopwith Camel pilot who chased the Red Baron to
his death, thought to be from an Australian AA gunner on the ground.” Note
the fact that Sopwith Camels were a British plane, so my phrase “British
Sopwith Camel” is correct in fact. Your Canuck, who was flying the British
plane, did not, however, kill the Red Baron, but as I also wrote, “his
death, thought to be from an Australian AA gunner on the ground.” The
bullets that killed the famed aviator were not from the machine gun on the
Canuck pilot’s plane, but were of the caliber of the Australian ground
forces AA units! Here I was, trying to insert a little education into the
column, and I find the world is full of Sopwith Camels with loaded machine
guns, trying to blow poor Hillary out of the skies! If they only knew how to
make chocolates in Canada, I would get you to send me some as an apology.
Dear Hillary,
I’d just like to say how much I enjoy your column but not as much as I
enjoyed my last two months with my girlfriend of three years in Pattaya. I
often hear farang complaining about their Thai girlfriends, stop whinging
and don’t expect your Thai girlfriends to put up with things no European
lady would. Am I the only farang (Irish) man in Pattaya happy with his
girlfriend? Counting the days to get back to Somporn and Thailand.
Sabai Sabai Des
Dear Sabai Sabai Des,
You are not the only farang man happy with his girlfriend in Pattaya (or
elsewhere in Thailand, for that matter), there are many of them. The success
or otherwise of a relationship in Thailand, as in anywhere on the planet,
depends upon the two people in that relationship. If you have gone into the
relationship with your eyes open (and your wallet closed), and have the best
of intentions yourself, then you have a greater than 50 percent chance of
success. Many farangs will not apply the same standards of fidelity they
expect from their girlfriends, to themselves. These relationships, must
fail. I am glad you are enjoying yours, my Irish (four leaf) Petal.
Dear Hillary,
The wife of one of my husband’s friends will be coming to visit next month,
along with a couple of her girl friends. They would all be in their 50’s,
and shocked me when they wrote and said they wanted to see a “sex show”
while they are here. Do you think it’s proper for me to take them to some of
the more outrageous places, or what? I’m really blown away by this. What do
you recommend, Hillary?
Shocked and Shamed
Dear Shocked and shamed,
There is nothing to worry about, my dear. Everybody knows we don’t have sex
shows in Thailand. The nice policeman told me so. However, if you’re really
worried, get your husband to take them. There will be a little man holding a
grubby list in the red-light areas which will have enough sex shows with
more positions than the Kama Sutra. But if you look carefully, you will see
that position 47 is exactly the same as position 23, except you cross your
fingers. At 50 years of age, I doubt also that your friends have enough
dexterity to do the contortions.
Dear Hillary,
You are often telling people that they should learn Thai if they are living
here for some time. I have retired here, but at my age (70), I find it very
difficult to learn a new language at my time in life. Is there any quick way
of doing this, or do you have any special tips for people trying to learn
this (for me) very difficult Thai language?
Linguistic Larry
Dear Linguistic Larry,
We are really going educational this week, aren’t we my Petal. So you want
tips about talking (Thai). What next? Larry, it is a problem I know, but if
you are retired and not working, then there is one quick (but none of them
are easy) way to learn. It’s called Total Immersion and Hillary’s language
teacher friends all tell me it is the quickest. Go and stay in a village
up-country in a little local hotel and put yourself into the situation that
you have to speak Thai or starve! I am told that in six weeks you will have
picked up reasonable Thai and you are on your way to complete mastery of the
tongue. You will probably have picked up a small language teacher as well,
so you can practice 24 hours a day. Lots of luck and “Chok dii, Kha”.
Psychological Perspectives: Employee control over work provides benefits to both employer and employee
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
How much control do you have over your
work? Can you determine when, where, and how you perform your job? Do you
have the authority to change aspects of the workplace that need changing?
Your answers to these questions have important implications for your
well-being. There is persuasive evidence in the psychological literature
that the experience of control over one’s work environment can reduce
stress and fatigue, and enhance motivation and personal growth. Likewise,
the lack of employee control can have negative consequences for both
employer and employee.
The experience of control has long been recognized as being an important
factor in helping people deal with stress. Compared to workers with a high
degree of control, those perceiving low control typically experience more
exhaustion after work, trouble awakening in the morning, depression,
nervousness, anxiety, and insomnia or disturbed sleep. These findings led
psychologist Robert Karasek to propose the demand/control model hypothesis,
which predicts that the most unpleasant psychological reactions occur when
job demands (the need to work quickly and hard) are high, and the worker’s
ability to make decisions is low.
Workers who experience low control over work conditions are not only at
risk for depression, exhaustion, and job dissatisfaction. For those of us
unlucky enough to be in a low-control workplace, there is new evidence of
increased health risks. Low control over work has most recently been
associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, poor health
functioning, and absenteeism due to illness.
The relationship between employee control and occupational stress has not
gone unnoticed by progressive-minded employers, and for good reason.
Workers who experience emotional distress or reduced health functioning can
negatively affect the corporate bottom line through lowered work
efficiency, absenteeism, and high employee turnover. Accordingly, some
employers have begun looking for ways to give workers a greater sense of
control as a means of improving employee health, morale, and productivity.
Ford Motor Company, for example, has instituted a team-based approach in
many of its manufacturing operations. This model allows employees to assume
much greater control over their work. Whereas the conventional approach is
for employees to simply follow directions from their supervisors, under
Ford’s new system employees have the ability to resolve quality issues with
parts suppliers, and take other actions independently to improve work
conditions and product quality.
An even more progressive means of allowing employees control over their
work is known as “telework.” Telework allows employees the ability to
choose the time or place that best allows them to accomplish their work
duties in an effective and efficient manner. As you might guess, many
employees choose their home as the preferred place to work. Obviously,
certain occupations would seem more conducive to telework than others. Many
solitary activities, such as writing, typing, and tasks performed at a
telephone or computer terminal would appear readily adaptable to telework.
I would probably not like it, however, if my physician chose to do his work
from his home.
One interesting aspect of the literature on control is the fact that it is
the belief in control that is essential in determining our responses to
situations. Implicit in this finding is the fact that we always have the
ability to increase our belief in, and experience of control. The idea is
not that we should delude ourselves into believing that we have control
where we don’t. Rather, we have the ability to focus attention on those
aspects of our work situation over which we do have control, while ignoring
those aspects over which we have little or no control.
There are also ways to lessen the impact of unpleasant situations over
which we determine we have no control. We can, for example, view an
undesirable situation as temporary, one that might improve on its own in
the future, or one we might better control in the future. Another method is
to change our perspective on the situation. A snake may seem dangerous and
threatening when thought of in a certain way. However, that same snake may
also be viewed as a creature of exquisite beauty, an object of tremendous
interest and fascination. It’s not so much the situation that’s critical.
It’s how we perceive it.
Finally, it can be empowering to consider that even when we can’t change an
unpleasant workplace situation, we always have the option of removing
ourselves from the situation, of changing to a different work setting.
Although one might legitimately choose to remain in a low control
situation, simply realizing the availability of other options can enhance
one’s perception of control, in theory, reducing the risk of emotional
distress and stress-related ailments.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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A Female Perspective: Motherhood
with Sharona Watson
As a mother, there is something very
simple and obvious that you quickly realise about having children; they are
the future. When you look into their eyes, it is like looking forward.
Children are what we make of them - at least to some extent. Sometimes, we
give them all we can and they grow up to be something completely different
to what we expected or intended and become people who seem almost unrelated
to their parents.
We try to teach them values in life. We are not on our own in this world and
therefore we have to accommodate other people. So, for me, one of the
greatest values to pass on is consideration for others. I say to my two
children, “Be sensitive and make sure that what you do is what you think is
right.”
 Motherhood:
A privilege reserved for women.
Making sure you are generous to others and that you respect people like the
older members of society, is something which I think is extremely important
to teach your children. In many countries I have been to I do not see this.
Once I travelled on the bus in London and there came a very old lady, who
could barely stand up. I was heavily pregnant at the time. It was me who had
to offer my seat, whilst next to me was a girl of about sixteen who didn’t
even look at the old lady. I thought this showed how many values seem to be
disappearing.
Of course in Thailand, the young do show respect for their elders, which is
just one of the many reasons why it is such a beautiful place to live.
I have two children. One is aged fourteen, the other is aged six. Both
girls. Ah, a teenager. I’ve noticed that the doors are beginning to slam,
usually accompanied by the shouted words, “Oh, Mummy! You don’t understand!”
Naturally, the six year old imitates her older sister. It’s all happened
very quickly but we have a long way to go yet, insha’allah.
To be honest, I never really wanted a boy but any thoughts about what I
would or wouldn’t like disappeared during labour, a time when I felt
absolutely powerless to stop the most excruciating pain. Before the birth of
our first, Andy used to say that he would like a boy but he too forgot about
it when the moment to give birth came along. He claims that labour was just
as painful for him. I just remember him asleep on my legs during my
contractions after a good dose of “Gas & Air”.
For me, from the moment they exist in your body, a child is like a beautiful
flower. You care for it, you water it, you nourish it, you try to make sure
there are no parasites living off it, and eventually it blossoms. You give
them all the love and attention they desire and need unconditionally.
I love my children very, very dearly. But as a mother, every few months I
find myself having to take a “day off” as I call it. Andy rudely asks, “A
day off from what?” I go and spend a day or two in Bangkok, staying in a
hotel, watching a movie, just being on my own, and forgetting about the
world. I think it’s very important and that every mother should do that, if
she can. It keeps you fresh.
Everybody needs a rest. When I come back I feel absolutely revived. And yet
I see many mothers unable to take such a rest for lots of reasons, and more
still who do not take the opportunity.
I think being a child in society today is far harder than it was when I was
growing up. I had some duties of course; I had to work a few hours one day a
week whilst I was at school but the rest of the time we would be free.
Sometimes we would do homework. Most of the time, not. There was no fear of
being kidnapped or taken away. I think children today have to cope with a
lot of things just by going outside and having to be constantly aware of
their surroundings. We always emphasise to our children how important it is
for them to be close to us.
In the community where I grew up, on a kibbutz, I had twenty brothers and
sisters. From the age of six months, all the children born in the same year
lived together in their own house. We were looked after by a number of
“Metapellets” or “matrons”. Those children who had their natural parents on
the kibbutz (not all did) were never more than a couple of hundred yards
away from them, but the kids slept with their peer group, who became like
brothers and sisters.
For the natural parents, this meant that they had blissful uninterrupted
sleep (except in the case of an emergency) from when their kids were only
six months old. As for the children; they grew up with their best friends
and learnt initiative, self-reliance and comradeship on the way. Instead of
being incubated with their parents for eighteen years, they were free to
develop their own personalities.
But it wasn’t like they didn’t see their natural parents – they spent four
to five hours a day with them. BUT this was at a time of day when the
parents were not tired and which they were obliged to give to their
children. It was really healthy, quality time. In different societies like
the West, how many of us only get to see our children when we are tired at
the beginning or end of the day?
But no matter how tired I am, there comes a moment every day when I find
myself looking at my children and thinking about how much I love them, and
how lucky and I am to be a mother, a privilege reserved for women.
Next Week: Other Mothers
[email protected]
Language Works
by Myths Meanings and Origins
An email from my Brother
My brother Don, who turns 70 this year, is what you might call an email
junkie. I say this with some pride as I know many people of his age are
still reluctant to trade in their quills, leave alone enter into the alien
landscape of cyberspace.
But Don is no technophobe. I get an average ten emails per day from him,
mostly forwarded jokes and photos. Apart from keeping him and his delightful
wife Mary never far from my thoughts, there is the added benefit of never
lacking light reading material.
Trivia
A few days ago, one of his forwarded emails caught my linguist’s
curiosity. It began as a list of mostly unrelated trivia: the identities of
the kings in a set of playing cards; the meaning of horse’s legs in statues;
windshield wipers and laser printers were invented by women and so on.
However, the last four items were related in that they were each about the
origin of a word or phrase. Unfortunately, one of those words does not
belong in a family paper such as the Pattaya Mail, but here are the other
three:
In Shakespeare’s time, mattresses were secured on bed frames by ropes. When
you pulled on the ropes the mattress tightened, making the bed firmer to
sleep on. Hence the phrase ‘goodnight, sleep tight’.
It was the accepted practice in Babylon 4,000 years ago that for a month
after the wedding, the bride’s father would supply his son-in-law with all
the mead he could drink. Mead is a honey beer and because their calendar was
lunar based, this period was called the honey month or what we know today as
the honeymoon.
In Scotland, a new game was invented. It was entitled Gentlemen Only, Ladies
Forbidden and thus the word GOLF entered into the English language.
I accepted this trivia at face value at first. Certainly, ‘sleep tight’ and
‘honeymoon’ seemed plausible enough – but G.O.L.F?
Etymology and
Dave Wilton
Etymology is the study of word origins. For anyone interested in
language, it gives a fascinating perspective on how living languages evolve
over time. Google (have you noticed that google has recently become a verb?)
the word etymology and you will be faced with eleven million links to choose
from.
By a happy accident, I ended up in Dave Wilton’s Etymology page. It seems Mr
Wilton is THE expert on word myths and has even written a book about it.
Added to that, his passion, painstaking research and witty prose frequently
make the truth a lot more interesting than the myth.
As I had half suspected, all of the word origin items in the email were
fanciful bunkum. The story about Shakespearean beds is quite correct, but
the phrase ‘sleep tight’ comes from much later. For a while, in the 18th
Century, the word ‘tight’ could mean soundly or roundly, a meaning it had
not yet acquired in Shakespeare’s day.
The word honeymoon first appeared in the 16th century, quite some time after
the fall of Babylon. According to Wilton, ‘the moon is not a reference to
the lunar-based month, but rather a bitter acknowledgement that this
sweetness, like a full moon, would quickly fade.’ It seems a cynical view of
marriage is nothing new.
And Golf? Simply derived from an old Germanic word meaning ‘club’.
Terrifically Terrible
Next in this week’s ramble through word meanings and origins, if
you take a look at most English-Thai dictionaries, you will find ‘terrific’
and ‘terrible’ listed as synonyms; that is, words having the same meaning.
Both words are translated in the dictionaries as naklua – literally ‘worthy
of fear’, and there was a time, not so long ago, when they did both mean
frightening. Indeed, there are still traces of this meaning in modern
English usage; we talk about a ‘terrific’ or ‘terrible’ storm.
But these have now become secondary meanings. According to the Longman
Dictionary of Contemporary English, the primary meaning of ‘terrific’ is
‘very good …’, whereas the primary meaning of ‘terrible’ is ‘extremely
severe …’
These two words are my quick ‘litmus test’ when evaluating an English-Thai
dictionary. Unfortunately very few pass.
Nicely done Melanie and Mike
Finally for this week, thinking about word origins reminded me of
one of my teachers correcting our usage of the word ‘nice’. We could not, we
were told, say that we had had a nice holiday, because ‘nice’ did not mean
‘pleasant’ – it meant ‘accurate’. ‘How can you have an accurate holiday?’ he
would scrawl in nasty red ink across our innocent essays.
I would like to think that Mr Nameless was stuck back in the 19th Century of
his own childhood, but he really wasn’t that old. He was simply confusing a
word’s meaning with its etymology.
Dave Wilton offered no advice on ‘nice’ so I looked up another favourite
etymology website: Melanie and Mike’s Take Our Word for It. I found that
‘nice’ had indeed meant ‘accurate’ for a couple of centuries, and there are
still traces of it in modern usage; for example, when we say ‘nicely done’.
What Mr Nameless was probably not aware of was the extraordinary history of
the word before its ‘accurate’ phase.
In the 13th Century, ‘nice’ meant, believe it or not, ‘foolish or stupid’. A
hundred years or so later, that had evolved into ‘wanton’, and later still
‘extravagantly dressed’. By the mid 15th Century, it had two completely
separate meanings: ‘strange’ and ‘lazy’. However, by the end of that
century, it referred to dress again, this time with a more positive meaning:
‘elegant’. In the next century, it flipped again to negative: ‘fastidious’
and ‘effeminate’; and back to positive for the 17th Century: ‘refined’ and
‘cultured’.
So ‘nice’ (13th Century) Mr Nameless, if you can choose your period for the
word ‘nice’ so can I, and I choose mid 15th Century. Strange and lazy – now
that is my idea of a nice holiday!
If you are interested in word origins, the link for Dave Wilton’s site is:
http://www.wordorigins.org and Melanie and Mike’s:
http://www.takeourword.com
And as always, if you have any questions, or would like to vent your spleen,
feel free to email me at: [email protected]
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